Politics · One-time event · Trading closed
Did the US government shut down before July 1, 2026?
Resolved YES on Jun 27, 2026
At close: YES 38% NO 62%
Price chart
YES 38% at close, resolved YES100%75%50%25%0%
Volume$84,200
ResultYES
ResolvedJun 27, 2026
How oftenOne-time
How the odds were set
YES at close38%
NO at close62%
Final volume$84,200
ResolvedJun 27, 2026
How it resolvedTrading closed on Jun 27, 2026. Everyone holding YES was paid in full and everyone holding NO was not, against the source named in the rules. There is no price now and nothing to bet.
Resolved YES on Jun 27, 2026: a federal funding gap caused a shutdown beginning before 00:00 ET on July 1, 2026. It would have resolved NO had funding held through that date.
Source: official US Office of Management and Budget notices. Resolved by the Yonder team.
Resolved YES on Jun 27, 2026 at 09:14 ET. A federal funding gap began before the Jul 1 deadline the rules named.
Source: OMB notice of Jun 26, 2026. Read by the Yonder team at 09:14 ET.
YES closed at 38%. Funding talks had stalled twice that quarter, and the three deadlines before it were settled at the last minute. What was moving the number:
For YES
- Budget talks stalled in committee, no scheduled vote.
- A bloc had committed to opposing the stopgap bill.
For NO
- Last three deadlines met with short-term funding.
- Both parties signalled willingness to extend.
Background from the Yonder team to explain the odds. It plays no role in how this market resolves.
Biggest YES bets
1whwhale_07$1,240
2mamarketmaven$320
3alalpha_ape$280
4sasatoshi_jr$150
Biggest NO bets
1hehedge_hannah$980
2popolly_predicts$150
3cacaut_carl$120
4ririskoff$90
| Bettor | Side | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| You | YES | $4.94 |
| whale_07 | YES | $471 |
| hedge_hannah | NO | $588 |
| marketmaven | YES | $121 |
| polly_predicts | NO | $87 |
Your bet is highlighted. Bets update as the odds move.
Recent bets, largest first. Filter: over $5.
whwhale_07 bet $175 on YES2m ago
hhhedge_hannah bet $180 on NO14m ago
mmmarketmaven cashed out $31 on YES1h ago
pppolly_predicts bet $87 on NO3h ago
nhnewhere bet $4.94 on YES5h ago
These always go to the wire. I am holding my position and adding if it dips.
The committee bloc looks firmer this time though.
Volume jumped right after the headline. Watching how it settles.
First bet here. The resolution source being official notices makes this easy to trust.