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Politics · One-time event
Will the US government shut down before March 1, 2027?
YES 38% NO 62%
Price chart
YES 38% now100%75%50%25%0%
Volume$84,200
Open to bet$31,500
ClosesMar 1, 2027
How oftenOne-time
How the odds are set
Yes price38%
No price62%
24h+2 pts
Volume$84,200
Available to bet$31,500
What 38% meansA YES share costs 38 cents and pays $1 if the event happens. $5.00 buys 13.16 shares, so YES returns $13.16 and NO returns nothing. The price is locked when you confirm, so it cannot move against you between the panel and the bet. Your own bet moves the price, so the panel quotes the amount in the box and locks THAT number, not this one.
Resolves YES if a federal funding gap causes a shutdown beginning before 00:00 ET on March 1, 2027. Resolves NO if funding is in place through that date.
Source: official US Office of Management and Budget notices. Resolved by the Yonder team.
YES is priced at 38%. Funding talks have stalled twice this quarter, but the last three deadlines were settled at the last minute. What is moving the number:
For YES
- Budget talks stalled in committee, no scheduled vote.
- A bloc has committed to opposing the stopgap bill.
For NO
- Last three deadlines met with short-term funding.
- Both parties signalled willingness to extend.
Background from the Yonder team to explain the odds. It plays no role in how this market resolves.
Biggest YES bets
1whwhale_07$1,240
2mamarketmaven$320
3alalpha_ape$280
4sasatoshi_jr$150
Biggest NO bets
1hehedge_hannah$980
2popolly_predicts$150
3cacaut_carl$120
4ririskoff$90
| Bettor | Side | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| whale_07 | YES | $471 |
| hedge_hannah | NO | $588 |
| marketmaven | YES | $121 |
| polly_predicts | NO | $87 |
Recent bets, largest first. Filter: over $5.
whwhale_07 bet $175 on YES2m ago
hhhedge_hannah bet $180 on NO14m ago
mmmarketmaven cashed out $31 on YES1h ago
pppolly_predicts bet $87 on NO3h ago
nhnewhere bet $4.94 on YES5h ago
These always go to the wire. I am holding my position and adding if it dips.
The committee bloc looks firmer this time though.
Volume jumped right after the headline. Watching how it settles.
First bet here. The resolution source being official notices makes this easy to trust.