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Politics · One-time event · 5 outcomes
Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Leading: JD Vance 41%
Price chart
JD Vance 41% now100%75%50%25%0%
Outcomes
Tap YES or NO on an outcome to load it into the bet panel. The panel stays focused on the one you picked, however long this list gets.
Volume$1,200,000
Open to bet$180,000
ClosesJul 1, 2028
How oftenOne-time
How the odds are set
Yes price38%
No price62%
24h+2 pts
Volume$84,200
Available to bet$31,500
What 38% meansA YES share costs 38 cents and pays $1 if the event happens. $5.00 buys 13.16 shares, so YES returns $13.16 and NO returns nothing. The price is locked when you confirm, so it cannot move against you between the panel and the bet. Your own bet moves the price, so the panel quotes the amount in the box and locks THAT number, not this one.
Resolves to the candidate who is the Republican Party's official presidential nominee at the 2028 national convention. All other outcomes resolve NO.
Source: official Republican National Committee certification. Resolved by the Yonder team.
JD Vance leads at 41% as the incumbent-aligned candidate, with Trump-endorsed momentum the main swing factor. What is moving the field:
For the leader (Vance)
- Strong early-state polling and party-establishment backing.
- Front-runner fundraising lead over the rest of the field.
Against / for the field
- A late entrant could consolidate the anti-front-runner vote.
- Early primaries historically reshuffle the order.
Background from the Yonder team to explain the odds. It plays no role in how this market resolves.
Biggest bets by outcome
1whwhale_07 JD Vance$1,240
2hehedge_hannah Donald Trump$980
3mamarketmaven JD Vance$620
4alalpha_ape Ron DeSantis$410
5sasatoshi_jr Nikki Haley$250
6ririskoff Other$180
| Bettor | Outcome | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| You | JD Vance | $5.33 |
| whale_07 | JD Vance | $434 |
| hedge_hannah | Donald Trump | $196 |
| marketmaven | JD Vance | $254 |
| polly_predicts | Ron DeSantis | $21 |
Your bet is highlighted. Bets update as the odds move.
Recent bets, largest first. Filter: over $5.
whwhale_07 bet $205 on JD Vance2m ago
hhhedge_hannah bet $66 on Donald Trump14m ago
mmmarketmaven cashed out $33 on JD Vance1h ago
popolly_predicts bet $21 on Ron DeSantis3h ago
nhnewhere bet $1.60 on Nikki Haley5h ago
These always go to the wire. I am holding my position and adding if it dips.
The committee bloc looks firmer this time though.
Volume jumped right after the headline. Watching how it settles.
First bet here. The resolution source being official notices makes this easy to trust.